The probability of a round of 16 match between Korea and Japan dropped slightly by 68% → 50%, and the probability of meeting with Saudi Arabia soared to 36%
There is now only half a chance that the fate of the Korea-Japan war will take place in the round of 16.
The South Korean national soccer team, led by coach Jürgen Klinsmann, tied with Jordan (ranked 87th in FIFA) at Group E of the 2023 Asian Cup at Al Thumama Stadium in Doha, Qatar, at 8:30 p.m. on Tuesday (Korea time). The draw left South Korea in second place.
It was an easy match as Son Heung-min scored a penalty kick just nine minutes into the first half. However, Korea failed to properly manage the match against Jordan, which was in a hurry after the first goal. Amidst a chaotic battle, the tide gradually tilted towards Jordan. In the end, Korea was dragged out as Park Yong-woo’s own goal and Al Naimat’s come-from-behind goal came out. Hwang In-beom’s equalizer just before the end of the match saved Korea.
If Korea had won against Jordan, the probability of Korea meeting Japan in the round of 16 would have been very high. Even before the tournament began, the probability of Korea-Japan match in the round of 16 as measured by the soccer statistics media “OPTA” was only 13 percent. Everyone expected that Korea and Japan would meet in the Asian Cup final. Such expectations grew stronger as Japan and Korea won all of their first matches.
However, as Japan lost against Iraq, the probability for the round of 16 match between Korea and Japan soared. The probability that Japan lost to Iraq jumped from 13 percent to 68 percent. If Korea had won against Jordan, the probability for Korea to win the group title would have exceeded 70 percent as the probability for Korea to win the round of 16 match between Korea and Japan would have been very high.
Fortunately, the probability of Korea-Japan match in the round of 16 declined as Korea drew with Jordan. The probability that Japan will rank second in Group D is still very high at 92.8%. The probability that Korea will rank first in Group E is set at 54.2%. The probability that the number of two cases will occur at the same time is 50.2%.
The biggest portion of the remaining 48.8 percent chance is when Korea advances to the round of 16 teams as the second-ranked team in the group. The probability for Korea to rank second in the group is 43.5 percent, which is not much different from the probability for Korea to rank first. If Korea secures the second place in the group, its opponent in the round of 16 teams will rank first in Group F.
Saudi Arabia is highly likely to rank No. 1 in Group F, led by Roberto Mancini. Saudi Arabia is highly likely to rank No. 1 in its group after winning its second group match against Kyrgyzstan on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia has a 83.5 percent chance of winning the title. The probability that Korea will face off against Saudi Arabia in the round of 16 is estimated at 36.3 percent. 헤라카지노도메인
Korea has played against Saudi Arabia under coach Klinsmann. It was Mancini’s second Saudi A match, and Korea won 1-0.